Reflections on the Church of 2064 – Owen Gray

If you had asked an incoming Presbyterian seminarian in 1964 what he expected the church of 2014 to be like, he (and it almost surely would have been a he, wouldn’t it?) would have needed to be nothing short of a prophet to get it all right. Think about it. Civil rights. Women’s rights and the Sexual Revolution. A church reunified and then fractured once again. Gay rights. Environmentalism. Terrorism. Computers and the Internet. The advent of interfaith and the rise of secularism. A LOT happened in five decades of American society, and the church today has been influenced by all of it.

The same could be said for any half-century, of course. 1914-1964 saw more than its fair share of societal and ecclesiological change. Going further back to 1864-1914, 1814-1864, or 1764-1814 reveals the same thing: big ol’ changes took place in them all. Which makes responding to the question “what will the church of 2064 look like?” much less a quaint intellectual exercise and much more an impossible experiment of broad-scale social anticipation…and one in which we cannot hope to entirely succeed.

This is also an experiment that begs for multiple voices, so multiple voices we will have. I have invited several close friends to join the conversation. All of us have some connection to Kansas City, most have a connection to Village Presbyterian Church (where I grew up and currently serve) and all of us share a tie to the Presbyterian Church at large. Our backgrounds help narrow the scope of the conversation: anticipating the next 50 years, not of the entire Christian Church, but the Presbyterian Church (USA). I’m excited to introduce them to you- they have introduced themselves at the bottom of this post- because they really are, in unique ways, exceptionally gifted young adults whom I think the PC(USA) is lucky to have around.

Each of us will offer our own individual takes on the next 50 years. We’ve also taken the extra step of offering a response to each other’s posts and asking a question alongside. We hope this will provide depth to each daily post, spur even more dialogue, and also give breadth to the entire week. We’re excited to give our thoughts, and we’re excited to hear feedback.

So that’s the setup; here is the part I offer as the host of this week’s conversation. What follows is my input as a contributor. This is what I anticipate for the church of 2064.

I feel confident that three topics will influence the faith over the next 50 years. Certainly there will be more, but my imagining leads me to think that these three will especially define the coming era.

First is gay marriage. Yes, it’s obviously dominating conversation right now. But remember our imaginary seminarian from 1964? In the same way that race relations dominated that year and continued to for the coming decades, so too do I anticipate rights for homosexual persons to continue to be debated and evolve. At this point, nearly 20 states recognize gay marriage, and courts are chipping away at discriminatory laws in others. Maybe it will take five years, maybe fifteen, but I anticipate gay marriage becoming legal nation-wide (by means of the Supreme Court, maybe?) and discriminatory laws to fall in the courts over time as well. Beyond that, we will likely see “firsts” for homosexuals: the first openly gay NBA and NFL players are on our radar now; how will that trend continue? Will we see the PC(USA) elect its first openly homosexual moderator or Stated Clerk? What of openly gay Supreme Court justices or presidential cabinet members? Might we see the first openly gay president elected? It could be as soon as this summer that gay marriage is given official endorsement by this denomination – for what it’s worth, it’s my hope that we do.

To say the least, other Christian denominations would have a tougher time dealing with the demise of a moral opinion to which they have held dear. The point at which more conservative Christians perceive their cause as lost might (read: almost absolutely will) be the point where intentional and loving reconciliation will be needed. My sincerest hope is that the era of fighting over this particular issue will end sooner rather than later.

Realistically, I’d say it might take another 20 or 30 years to say it is officially “behind us”. But it will nonetheless define a large part of the next 50 years, and likely years beyond.

My second prediction moves from domestic to international: China. Experts anticipate the east-Asian giant to overtake the United States economically and, potentially, militarily and politically by the midpoint of the century. Such an overtaking will not likely be absolute – it took Great Britain a century or so to totally cede dominance to the United States, after all – but there will, in all likelihood, come a time before 2064 where other countries look to Beijing before they look to Washington in world affairs. There will also be a day when the US will not be able to confidently assume success in military or political competition with China. Systematically, experts predict, the world order may soon change.

Weird to think about, right? But if political scientists are to be believed (allow me to nerd out for a second), “power transition theory” suggests that unless the US has tremendous incentive to be upset at this shift then there will not be a large military conflict. WWI-era Germany and the Cold War Soviet Union offer the counter to this idea – since they were not content with the economic or political ideology of the era, their ascension to power was accompanied by armed conflict. China is only nominally communist (in reality they’re a unique centralized capitalist country that’s moving more towards democracy), so the US can still reap financial benefits from China as it continues to grow.

So no war with China is likely. Great! That doesn’t mean that the church won’t have to adjust to the fact that the main world power is not a nation dominated by Christianity. Not only that, but the trend toward secularization within the US means that the church as it exists now might be significantly weakened. It might have less sway in politics. Society might become more judgmental towards people of faith. Our place of privilege enjoyed over the last 50 years might well decrease even more. Long story short, church leaders will likely have to discern how to maintain the relevancy of the church since it won’t be a given. We will have to continue to adapt and innovate to continue to make the church of Christ one which is important in our society.

My third suspicion is that the conversation about wealth inequality will not go away. I’m less confident about this opinion that the other two, but the last time the wealthy and the poor in America were separated this much monetarily was 1928. Good things did not happen in the following years (read: Great Depression). Might a similar fate be awaiting us?

While I’m not going to suggest that a market crash is coming, I think it is safe to say that the way in which the rich relate to the poor (and vice versa) will become a pressing issue in politics and in the church. After all, helping “the least of these” is kind of our thing in the church. Maybe this will be directly tied to immigration issues. Maybe it will relate to entitlement reform in Washington. Regardless of the form, financial inequality is increasingly underpinning political conversation, and what happens socially in America will certainly become part of the church. I unequivocally hope that the welfare of the poor in any era will be of utmost concern to the church.

Now, full disclosure, I’m not sure I would even give a 50% chance of all these things being “THE issues” over the next 50 years. But who knows…maybe I’ll be right!

The more important thing, though, is not WHAT the church does over the next 50 years. It’s HOW we do it. I hope that, no matter the issues, the PC(USA) can be truly faithful. I hope we can be on the front end of social trends; that society might look to the church as a model to follow when issues pop up. I hope that we will be viewed as distinct from society; that it will be clear to anyone that watches that our actions are influenced by an incarnational mindset that no other set of morals or ethics can match. I hope that through anything we as a church can inspire people; that they will know that a life lived in response to the Resurrection is the most fulfilling that a person can live. And above all I hope that we can be a church who trusts God’s goodness through it all.

Those ideals are exciting in theory. They are exceptionally hard to live out without context. But context will come whether we like it or not. It’s up to us to be ready for it and to lean on our God, our Christ, and the Spirit for strength in doing so.

Response Jessie Light

It will be interesting to see not only how other Christian denominations respond to the an official endorsement of gay marriage, but also how the PC(USA) will be impacted. How might becoming a more open denomination change how society and the world at large perceive the PC(USA)?

Response Geoff Wehmeyer

Hi all – I’m excited to join the discussion, and Owen’s post helped me frame my thoughts on how our church might respond to the social, economic, and political changes to come. Owen’s mention of loving reconciliation with churches who oppose LGBTQ ordination and marriage rights sparked a question for me: When the future PC(USA) inevitably concludes that our collective actions on some other issue have perpetuated injustice, how can we faithfully learn from our mistakes and act to address the wrongs we were complicit in?

Response Caroline Barnett

I am honored and excited to take part in this experiment! I would like to draw a focus to Owen’s discussion of the impact of LGBTQ rights on the church in the growing years, akin to how civil rights has affected the last fifty years. My question then is then how can we confront the reality that even after legal barriers are dismantled, given that we will still have to work against heterosexism and homophobia (similar to the reality that we do not actually live in a post-racial society)?

Response Nathan Lusk

I think Owen hits two important trends the world is going to experience in the next 50 years. The first is that the Western worldview will no longer control world politics as they have for the last 400+ years. Asia, Africa and South America will continue to grow in both economic and political power. I personally am excited for what this means for the Church. The other is income inequality. I would not be surprised if we will see the end of unfettered capitalism in the next 50 years. It is simply unsustainable economically, environmentally and socially, something is going to give. The question I have is will denominations even matter in 50 years? Instead of continued fragmenting, will we see a stronger effort to unify regardless of tradition?

Owen Gray is a native and current resident of suburban Kansas City, though he holds deep allegiance to both great states of Kansas and Nebraska. He recently graduated from the University of Nebraska in Lincoln with degrees in Political Science and Religious Studies and, come fall, will begin classes at Union Presbyterian Seminary in Richmond. Owen currently serves as Pastoral Intern at Village Presbyterian Church in Prairie Village, KS, where he was also married to the beautiful Grace Gillaspie Gray. He served in several youth ministries while in Lincoln but is also passionate about social justice (especially as it regards government), pastoral care, camp ministry, preaching, and academic work. Other passions include reading, college football, Beethoven, string bass, golf, and Kansas City barbeque.